An integrated approach for spatio-temporal cholera disease hotspot relation mining for public health management in Punjab, Pakistan

Public health management can generate actionable results when diseases are studied in context with other candidate factors contributing to disease dynamics. In order to fully understand the interdependent relationships of multiple geospatial features involved in disease dynamics, it is important to construct an effective representation model that is able to reveal the relationship patterns and trends. The purpose of this work is to combine disease incidence spatio-temporal data with other features of interest in a mutlivariate spatio-temporal model for investigating characteristic disease and feature patterns over identified hotspots. We present an integrated approach in the form of a disease management model for analyzing spatio-temporal dynamics of disease in connection with other determinants. Our approach aligns spatio-temporal profiles of disease with other driving factors in public health context to identify hotspots and patterns of disease and features of interest in the identified locations. We evaluate our model against cholera disease outbreaks from 2015–2019 in Punjab province of Pakistan. The experimental results showed that the presented model effectively address the complex dynamics of disease incidences in the presence of other features of interest over a geographic area representing populations and sub populations during a given time. The presented methodology provides an effective mechanism for identifying disease hotspots in multiple dimensions and relation between the hotspots for cost-effective and optimal resource allocation as well as a sound reference for further predictive and forecasting analysis.