TY - JOUR
T1 - Association between temperature and COVID-19 transmission in 153 countries
AU - Liu, Mengyang
AU - Li, Zhiwei
AU - Liu, Mengmeng
AU - Zhu, Yingxuan
AU - Liu, Yue
AU - Kuetche, Mandela William Nzoyoum
AU - Wang, Jianpeng
AU - Wang, Xiaonan
AU - Liu, Xiangtong
AU - Li, Xia
AU - Wang, Wei
AU - Guo, Xiuhua
AU - Tao, Lixin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - The WHO characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic. The influence of temperature on COVID-19 remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between temperature and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases by different climate regions and temperature levels worldwide. Daily data on average temperature (AT), maximum temperature (MAXT), minimum temperature (MINT), and new COVID-19 cases were collected from 153 countries and 31 provinces of mainland China. We used the spline function method to preliminarily explore the relationship between R0 and temperature. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the association between temperature and daily new cases of COVID-19, and a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the pooled results in different regions in the second stage. Our findings revealed that temperature was positively related to daily new cases at low temperature but negatively related to daily new cases at high temperature. When the temperature was below the smoothing plot peak, in the temperate zone or at a low temperature level (e.g., <25th percentiles), the RRs were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.15), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.15), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.23) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. Whereas temperature was above the smoothing plot peak, in a tropical zone or at a high temperature level (e.g., >75th percentiles), the RRs were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.83), and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28, 0.81) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. The results were confirmed to be similar regarding MINT, MAXT, and sensitivity analysis. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in different regions and temperature levels.
AB - The WHO characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic. The influence of temperature on COVID-19 remains unclear. The objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between temperature and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases by different climate regions and temperature levels worldwide. Daily data on average temperature (AT), maximum temperature (MAXT), minimum temperature (MINT), and new COVID-19 cases were collected from 153 countries and 31 provinces of mainland China. We used the spline function method to preliminarily explore the relationship between R0 and temperature. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the association between temperature and daily new cases of COVID-19, and a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the pooled results in different regions in the second stage. Our findings revealed that temperature was positively related to daily new cases at low temperature but negatively related to daily new cases at high temperature. When the temperature was below the smoothing plot peak, in the temperate zone or at a low temperature level (e.g., <25th percentiles), the RRs were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.15), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.15), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.23) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. Whereas temperature was above the smoothing plot peak, in a tropical zone or at a high temperature level (e.g., >75th percentiles), the RRs were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.83), and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.28, 0.81) associated with a 1°C increase in AT, respectively. The results were confirmed to be similar regarding MINT, MAXT, and sensitivity analysis. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in different regions and temperature levels.
KW - Average temperature
KW - Basic reproductive number
KW - Maximum temperature
KW - Minimum temperature
KW - New COVID-19 cases
KW - Worldwide
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85117058984&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11356-021-16666-5
DO - 10.1007/s11356-021-16666-5
M3 - Article
C2 - 34637125
AN - SCOPUS:85117058984
SN - 0944-1344
VL - 29
SP - 16017
EP - 16027
JO - Environmental Science and Pollution Research
JF - Environmental Science and Pollution Research
IS - 11
ER -