Can genetic testing predict talent? a case study of 5 elite athletes

Purpose: The genetic influence on the attainment of elite athlete status is well established, with a number of polymorphisms found to be more common in elite athletes than in the general population. As such, there is considerable interest in understanding whether this information can be utilized to identify future elite athletes. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to compare the total genotype scores of 5 elite athletes to those of nonathletic controls, to subsequently determine whether genetic information could discriminate between these groups, and, finally, to suggest how these findings may inform debates relating to the potential for genotyping to be used as a talent-identification tool. Methods: The authors compared the total genotype scores for both endurance (68 genetic variants) and speed-power (48 genetic variants) elite athlete status of 5 elite track-and-field athletes, including an Olympic champion, to those of 503 White European nonathletic controls. Results: Using the speed-power total genotype score, the elite speed-power athletes scored higher than the elite endurance athletes; however, using this speed-power score, 68 nonathletic controls registered higher scores than the elite power athletes. Surprisingly, using the endurance total genotype score, the elite speed-power athletes again scored higher than the elite endurance athletes. Conclusions: These results suggest that genetic information is not capable of accurately discriminating between elite athletes and nonathletic controls, illustrating that the use of such information as a talent-identification tool is currently unwarranted and ineffective.