Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology

Mehrdad Sabetzadeh; Davide Falessi; Lionel Briand; Stefano Di Alesio; Dag McGeorge; Vidar Åhjem; Jonas Borg

doi:10.1109/HASE.2011.22

Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology

Mehrdad Sabetzadeh
, Davide Falessi
, Lionel Briand
, Stefano Di Alesio
, Dag McGeorge
, Vidar Åhjem
, Jonas Borg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

New technologies typically involve innovative aspects that are not addressed by the existing normative standards and hence are not assessable through common certification procedures. To ensure that new technologies can be implemented in a safe and reliable manner, a specific kind of assessment is performed, which in many industries, e.g., the energy sector, is known as Technology Qualification (TQ). TQ aims at demonstrating with an acceptable level of confidence that a new technology will function within specified limits. Expert opinion plays an important role in TQ, both to identify the safety and reliability evidence that needs to be developed, and to interpret the evidence provided. Hence, it is crucial to apply a systematic process for eliciting expert opinions, and to use the opinions for measuring the satisfaction of a technology's safety and reliability objectives. In this paper, drawing on the concept of assurance cases, we propose a goal-based approach for TQ. The approach, which is supported by a software tool, enables analysts to quantitatively reason about the satisfaction of a technology's overall goals and further to identify the aspects that must be improved to increase goal satisfaction. The three main components enabling quantitative assessment are goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation. We report on an industrial pilot study where we apply our approach for assessing a new offshore technology.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011
Pages	63-72
Number of pages	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2011.22
Publication status	Published - 2011
Externally published	Yes
Event	13th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011 - Boca Raton, FL, United States Duration: 10 Nov 2011 → 12 Nov 2011

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering
ISSN (Print)	1530-2059

Conference

Conference	13th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011
Country/Territory	United States
City	Boca Raton, FL
Period	10/11/11 → 12/11/11

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Keywords

Assurance cases
Expert elicitation
Goal modeling
Monte Carlo simulation
Technology Qualification

Access to Document

10.1109/HASE.2011.22

Cite this

Sabetzadeh, M., Falessi, D., Briand, L., Di Alesio, S., McGeorge, D., Åhjem, V., & Borg, J. (2011). Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology. In Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011 (pp. 63-72). Article 6113875 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering). https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2011.22

Sabetzadeh, Mehrdad ; Falessi, Davide ; Briand, Lionel et al. / Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology. Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011. 2011. pp. 63-72 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering).

@inproceedings{63cb6f849f7e466dba96cdf34db4f61a,

title = "Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology",

abstract = "New technologies typically involve innovative aspects that are not addressed by the existing normative standards and hence are not assessable through common certification procedures. To ensure that new technologies can be implemented in a safe and reliable manner, a specific kind of assessment is performed, which in many industries, e.g., the energy sector, is known as Technology Qualification (TQ). TQ aims at demonstrating with an acceptable level of confidence that a new technology will function within specified limits. Expert opinion plays an important role in TQ, both to identify the safety and reliability evidence that needs to be developed, and to interpret the evidence provided. Hence, it is crucial to apply a systematic process for eliciting expert opinions, and to use the opinions for measuring the satisfaction of a technology's safety and reliability objectives. In this paper, drawing on the concept of assurance cases, we propose a goal-based approach for TQ. The approach, which is supported by a software tool, enables analysts to quantitatively reason about the satisfaction of a technology's overall goals and further to identify the aspects that must be improved to increase goal satisfaction. The three main components enabling quantitative assessment are goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation. We report on an industrial pilot study where we apply our approach for assessing a new offshore technology.",

keywords = "Assurance cases, Expert elicitation, Goal modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, Technology Qualification",

author = "Mehrdad Sabetzadeh and Davide Falessi and Lionel Briand and \{Di Alesio\}, Stefano and Dag McGeorge and Vidar {\AA}hjem and Jonas Borg",

year = "2011",

doi = "10.1109/HASE.2011.22",

language = "English",

isbn = "9780769546155",

series = "Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering",

pages = "63--72",

booktitle = "Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011",

note = "13th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011 ; Conference date: 10-11-2011 Through 12-11-2011",

}

Sabetzadeh, M, Falessi, D, Briand, L, Di Alesio, S, McGeorge, D, Åhjem, V & Borg, J 2011, Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology. in Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011., 6113875, Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, pp. 63-72, 13th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011, Boca Raton, FL, United States, 10/11/11. https://doi.org/10.1109/HASE.2011.22

Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology. / Sabetzadeh, Mehrdad; Falessi, Davide; Briand, Lionel et al.
Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011. 2011. p. 63-72 6113875 (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology

AU - Sabetzadeh, Mehrdad

AU - Falessi, Davide

AU - Briand, Lionel

AU - Di Alesio, Stefano

AU - McGeorge, Dag

AU - Åhjem, Vidar

AU - Borg, Jonas

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - New technologies typically involve innovative aspects that are not addressed by the existing normative standards and hence are not assessable through common certification procedures. To ensure that new technologies can be implemented in a safe and reliable manner, a specific kind of assessment is performed, which in many industries, e.g., the energy sector, is known as Technology Qualification (TQ). TQ aims at demonstrating with an acceptable level of confidence that a new technology will function within specified limits. Expert opinion plays an important role in TQ, both to identify the safety and reliability evidence that needs to be developed, and to interpret the evidence provided. Hence, it is crucial to apply a systematic process for eliciting expert opinions, and to use the opinions for measuring the satisfaction of a technology's safety and reliability objectives. In this paper, drawing on the concept of assurance cases, we propose a goal-based approach for TQ. The approach, which is supported by a software tool, enables analysts to quantitatively reason about the satisfaction of a technology's overall goals and further to identify the aspects that must be improved to increase goal satisfaction. The three main components enabling quantitative assessment are goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation. We report on an industrial pilot study where we apply our approach for assessing a new offshore technology.

AB - New technologies typically involve innovative aspects that are not addressed by the existing normative standards and hence are not assessable through common certification procedures. To ensure that new technologies can be implemented in a safe and reliable manner, a specific kind of assessment is performed, which in many industries, e.g., the energy sector, is known as Technology Qualification (TQ). TQ aims at demonstrating with an acceptable level of confidence that a new technology will function within specified limits. Expert opinion plays an important role in TQ, both to identify the safety and reliability evidence that needs to be developed, and to interpret the evidence provided. Hence, it is crucial to apply a systematic process for eliciting expert opinions, and to use the opinions for measuring the satisfaction of a technology's safety and reliability objectives. In this paper, drawing on the concept of assurance cases, we propose a goal-based approach for TQ. The approach, which is supported by a software tool, enables analysts to quantitatively reason about the satisfaction of a technology's overall goals and further to identify the aspects that must be improved to increase goal satisfaction. The three main components enabling quantitative assessment are goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation. We report on an industrial pilot study where we apply our approach for assessing a new offshore technology.

KW - Assurance cases

KW - Expert elicitation

KW - Goal modeling

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

KW - Technology Qualification

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U2 - 10.1109/HASE.2011.22

DO - 10.1109/HASE.2011.22

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84856520230

SN - 9780769546155

T3 - Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering

SP - 63

EP - 72

BT - Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011

T2 - 13th IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011

Y2 - 10 November 2011 through 12 November 2011

ER -

Sabetzadeh M, Falessi D, Briand L, Di Alesio S, McGeorge D, Åhjem V et al. Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology. In Proceedings - 2011 IEEE 13th International Symposium on High-Assurance Systems Engineering, HASE 2011. 2011. p. 63-72. 6113875. (Proceedings of IEEE International Symposium on High Assurance Systems Engineering). doi: 10.1109/HASE.2011.22

Combining goal models, expert elicitation, and probabilistic simulation for qualification of new technology

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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