Distinct hyperuricemia trajectories are associated with different risks of incident diabetes: A prospective cohort study

Background and aim: Conflicting results suggest a link between serum uric acid and diabetes and previous studies ignored the effect of continuous exposure of serum uric acid on diabetes risk. This study aims to characterize hyperuricemia trajectories in middle-aged adults and to examine its potential impact on diabetes risk, considering the role of obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Methods and results: The cohort included 9192 participants who were free of diabetes before 2013. The hyperuricemia trajectories during 2009–2013 were identified by latent class growth models. Incident diabetes during 2014–2018 was used as the outcome. Modified Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of trajectories with diabetes. Furthermore, marginal structural models were used to estimate the mediating effects of the relationship between hyperuricemia trajectories and diabetes. We identified three discrete hyperuricemia trajectories: high-increasing (n = 5794), moderate-stable (n = 2049), and low-stable (n = 1349). During 5 years of follow-up, we documented 379 incident diabetes cases. Compared with the low-stable pattern, the high-increasing pattern had a higher risk of developing diabetes (RR, 1.42; 95% CI: 1.09–1.84). In addition, the percentages of total effect between the high-increasing hyperuricemia pattern and diabetes mediated by obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension were 24.41%, 18.26%, and 6.29%. However, the moderate-stable pattern was not associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Conclusions: These results indicate that the high-increasing hyperuricemia trajectory is significantly associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Furthermore, obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension play mediating roles in the relationship between the high-increasing hyperuricemia pattern and increased diabetes risk.