TY - JOUR
T1 - Inversion of a SIR-based model
T2 - A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
AU - Comunian, Alessandro
AU - Gaburro, Romina
AU - Giudici, Mauro
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions.
AB - Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Inverse problems
KW - SIR models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089505629&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674
DO - 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85089505629
SN - 0167-2789
VL - 413
SP - -
JO - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena
JF - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena
M1 - 132674
ER -
