Populist attitudes of Democrats and Republicans are differentially affected by changes in electoral fairness and democratic satisfaction

Populism has long accompanied the development of modern democracies like a shadow, reflecting the presence of institutional faults. Given populism's discursive targeting of elites, it is particularly attractive to those who feel unfairly treated by the current state of affairs. In this paper, we explore how these populist grievances change in reaction to electoral events. Specifically, we assess perceptions of fairness and apply them to an electoral context. To accomplish this, we conducted a longitudinal study of three time-points throughout the 2024 US presidential election (n = 540), two before and one after the election. We hypothesized that changes in perceptions of electoral fairness, particularly among partisans whose candidate lost, would meaningfully affect an individual's populist attitudes post-election. Using mediation analyses, we found that decreases in both electoral fairness evaluations and democratic satisfaction mediated an increase in populist attitudes only among Democrats, while serial mediation revealed a causal link between electoral fairness and democratic satisfaction. Although democratic satisfaction may represent a broader attitude towards electoral systems, perceptions of unfairness within the electoral process also have the potential to stoke populist sentiment. We discuss the mechanics of this effect and other procedural contexts which may be of further interest.