Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi; Gopi Battineni; Francesco Amenta

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604

Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi
, Gopi Battineni
, Francesco Amenta

University of Camerino
Telemedicine and Telepharmacy Centre
Research Department

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

Original language	English
Article number	104604
Journal	Results in Physics
Volume	28
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
Publication status	Published - Sep 2021
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Epidemic size
Italian population
Projections
Second wave COVID-19

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10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604

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title = "Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections",

abstract = "The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R\_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R\_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95\% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95\% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95\% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.",

keywords = "Epidemic size, Italian population, Projections, Second wave COVID-19",

author = "Nalini Chintalapudi and Gopi Battineni and Francesco Amenta",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Author(s)",

year = "2021",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

journal = "Results in Physics",

issn = "2211-3797",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy

T2 - Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

AU - Chintalapudi, Nalini

AU - Battineni, Gopi

AU - Amenta, Francesco

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

AB - The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.

KW - Epidemic size

KW - Italian population

KW - Projections

KW - Second wave COVID-19

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85111273560

U2 - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604

DO - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85111273560

SN - 2211-3797

VL - 28

JO - Results in Physics

JF - Results in Physics

M1 - 104604

ER -

Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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