TY - JOUR
T1 - Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy
T2 - Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections
AU - Chintalapudi, Nalini
AU - Battineni, Gopi
AU - Amenta, Francesco
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s)
PY - 2021/9
Y1 - 2021/9
N2 - The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.
AB - The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201–100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197) respectively.
KW - Epidemic size
KW - Italian population
KW - Projections
KW - Second wave COVID-19
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85111273560
U2 - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
DO - 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111273560
SN - 2211-3797
VL - 28
JO - Results in Physics
JF - Results in Physics
M1 - 104604
ER -
