Sonographic Assessment of Asymptomatic Patellar and Achilles Tendons to Predict Future Pain: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Objective: Patients with clinical tendinopathy often demonstrate significant abnormalities with ultrasound (US) imaging. Tendon abnormalities likely precede pain in these patients. The purpose of this review was to systematically evaluate the available literature regarding the utility of US imaging as a method to predict Achilles and patellar tendon pain. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria were as follows: prospective studies of Achilles and patellar tendon pain development with baseline US measurements, follow-up clinical measurements, and English-language studies published after 2000. Exclusion criteria were prior rupture or surgery and presence of rheumatologic disorder. Setting: N/A. Patients: Athletes without Achilles or patellar tendon pain at baseline. Interventions: N/A. Main Outcome Measures: Risk ratios (RRs) were identified for the development of pain in those with Achilles or patellar tendon sonographic abnormalities. Results: This review of 16 studies included 810 Achilles and 1156 patellar tendons from a variety of sports and demonstrated that the RR for pain development from abnormal Patellar and Achilles tendons was 6.07 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.88-12.81; P < 0.001] and 3.96 [95% CI, 2.21-7.09; P < 0.001], respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of an abnormal US finding were 27.2% and 92.0% for the Achilles tendon and 27.2% and 93.5% for the patellar tendon, respectively. Conclusions: This systematic review and meta-analysis identified that the use of asymptomatic US scanning of the Achilles or patellar tendon has a low positive predictive value but a high negative predictive value for the future development of pain.