TY - JOUR
T1 - The effect of incubation time distribution on the extinction characteristics of a rabies epizootic
AU - Fowler, A. C.
PY - 2000
Y1 - 2000
N2 - The continuous model of Anderson et al. (1981), Nature 289, 765-771, is successful in describing certain characteristics of rabies epizootics, in particular, the secondary recurrences which follow the initial outbreak; however, it also predicts the occurrence of exponentially small minima in the infected population, which would realistically imply extinction of the virus. Here we show that inclusion of a more realistic distribution of incubation times in the model can explain why extinction will not occur, and we give explicit parametric estimates for the minimum infected fox density which will occur in the model, in terms of the incubation time distribution. (C) 2000 Society for Mathematical Biology.
AB - The continuous model of Anderson et al. (1981), Nature 289, 765-771, is successful in describing certain characteristics of rabies epizootics, in particular, the secondary recurrences which follow the initial outbreak; however, it also predicts the occurrence of exponentially small minima in the infected population, which would realistically imply extinction of the virus. Here we show that inclusion of a more realistic distribution of incubation times in the model can explain why extinction will not occur, and we give explicit parametric estimates for the minimum infected fox density which will occur in the model, in terms of the incubation time distribution. (C) 2000 Society for Mathematical Biology.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0033867815&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1006/bulm.1999.0170
DO - 10.1006/bulm.1999.0170
M3 - Article
C2 - 10938626
AN - SCOPUS:0033867815
SN - 0092-8240
VL - 62
SP - 633
EP - 656
JO - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
JF - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
IS - 4
ER -
